Farstar Capital publishes long-form, source-audited equity research on the companies building, powering, and financing the global compute stack. We work from filings, transcripts, and supply-chain data — not from consensus narratives.
NASDAQ: ASML · Deep Dive · 26 sections
ASML reported the best quarter in its history: €11.66 billion of net sales at a 57.5% gross margin, and a third increase to full-year guidance. It is the sole supplier of the machines that make every leading-edge chip, priced at 42.5 times trailing earnings and 29% above our base-case intrinsic value of $1,333. We rate the shares Reduce.
Open report →NYSE: PG · 30 sections · $150 target
Reported sales rose 3% in fiscal 2026 and unit volume rose zero. Two of those three points came from currency and one from price. Operating margin fell 160 basis points and net margin narrowed in all five segments, against a 2.95% dividend yield and a 5.31% ten-year Treasury.
Open report →NYSE: PRGO · 29 sections · $14 target
A chief executive gone for cause in June, $1.68 billion of goodwill written off in two years, and $600 million of businesses sold to pay down debt — against a 7.70% dividend that free cash flow has not covered since 2024.
Open report →NASDAQ: WMT · 25 sections · $112 target
Revenue of $713.2 billion on a 4.18% operating margin that has not moved in eight years. A $2.9 billion tariff refund inside the latest quarter, advertising +38%, membership fees +17% — against a 40-times multiple and a 5.24% ten-year Treasury. Rewritten 12 October.
Open report →HKEX: 2097 · 24 sections · HK$196 target
63,987 stores in 17 countries, and a supply chain that sells ingredients rather than drinks. Revenue grew 2.3% in the first half of 2026 while profit fell 14.7% and revenue per store fell 17.8% — against RMB 21.6 billion of financial assets, 37% of the market cap, and no debt. We rate the shares Neutral with a HK$196 fair value.
Open report →HKEX: 6831 · 26 sections · HK$5.60 target
The restaurant estate doubled in eighteen months while same-store sales fell 9.7% and revenue per store dropped about a sixth. The shares trade at under five times earnings, a quarter of the peer average, and the nine-year strategic holder sold its entire remaining stake in September. We rate the shares Neutral at HK$5.60.
Open report →NASDAQ: SHOP · 28 sections · $145 target
The storefront and the agent, refreshed to 5 October: 34% revenue growth and an 18% free cash flow margin, and a two-day 15% rally when Meta’s Muse agent adopted Shop Pay — the first hard evidence that agents route through the storefront rather than around it.
Open report →HKEX: 0700 · 26 sections · HK$565 target
Revenue rose 11% in the June quarter and gross margin reached 57.8%, yet capital expenditure rose 176% and free cash flow turned negative. Strip out net cash and an RMB 875 billion investment book and the operating business trades at 9.9 times forward earnings. We rate the shares Constructive at HK$565.
Open report →NYSE: ORCL · 31 sections · $160 target
The $664 billion promise: contracted backlog of $664 billion and cloud infrastructure revenue growing 121%, against $125.3 billion of notes payable, a BBB− rating and $28.7 billion of trailing negative free cash flow.
Open report →NASDAQ: HOOD · 28 sections · $128 target
The rent on restlessness: a record quarter built on an accounting gain, a shrinking crypto line, and a new product that roughly twenty US states are litigating as illegal gambling.
Open report →NASDAQ: MSFT · 24 sections · $512 target
The franchise and the furnace: Azure crossed $100 billion and reaccelerated to 43%, the commercial backlog reached $678 billion with roughly a third of it traceable to a single customer, and capital expenditure hit $115.9 billion.
Open report →NYSE: IBM · 24 sections · $248 target
The displaced incumbent: Software carries 61% of segment profit but decelerated to 5%, IBM Z fell 42% in the quarter it lapped its strongest launch, and $9.8 billion of pension underfunding sits behind a 116%-funded headline.
Open report →NASDAQ: GOOGL · 26 sections · $385 target
The mark and the machine: Google Cloud growing 82% with $514 billion of contracted backlog, against $200 billion of annual capital expenditure and the first negative free cash flow quarter since the 2004 IPO.
Open report →NASDAQ: AMZN · 29 sections · $275 target
The landlord of the frontier: AWS re-accelerating to 37% growth on a $496 billion backlog against $220 billion of capital expenditure, negative free cash flow, a $190.4 billion Anthropic position that is now a third of book equity, and a pricing case against the advertising auction.
Open report →NASDAQ: NVDA · 23 sections · $250 target
The compute toll: what the filings show, where the profit is coming from, and what $229.28 already requires to be true.
Open report →NASDAQ: MRNA · 32 sections · $110 target
The platform and the price: a validated mRNA oncology platform against revenue that has fallen 89% from its peak, a reimbursement channel closed by injunction, and a 2028 breakeven promise that requires growth of roughly 33% a year.
Open report →NASDAQ: META · 30 sections · $775 target
Revenue grew 28% in the June quarter and operating income fell 8%. The auction is clearing 12% more per impression; the company is spending $137.5 billion to keep it that way; and the buyback is off.
Open report →NASDAQ: MSTR · 29 sections · $145 target
846,000 bitcoin, a $63.8 billion cost basis, and a software business that is now a rounding error. Behind the coins sit $21.2 billion of senior claims and a $1.76 billion annual dividend strip.
Open report →The research business has an incentive problem. We have tried to design ours around a single constraint: every claim must survive contact with a primary document.
We do not use "must-own," "rocket ship," or "generational opportunity." If a thesis cannot be stated in the language of a 10-K, it is not a thesis.
Every target is the output of a stated model with stated inputs. Where the model is weak, we say so, and we publish the scenario that breaks it.
Positions, if any, are disclosed at the foot of each report. We do not accept compensation from issuers. Coverage is chosen by us.
Every figure in a report traces to a filing, an earnings release, a transcript, or a supplier disclosure. Secondary commentary is used only to locate a primary source, never to substitute for one.
We rebuild the income statement into cash. Working capital, capitalised costs, non-operating gains, and related-party flows are separated from the operating business and sized.
Market share is reconstructed from unit, revenue, and capacity data across merchant silicon, custom ASIC programs, and foundry/packaging allocation — not from a single analyst estimate.
We publish bear, base, and bull cases with explicit revenue, margin, and multiple assumptions, plus the reverse-DCF reading: what the current price already requires to be true.
Each report is stress-tested against its own strongest counter-argument before publication. The bear case is written by the same analyst as the bull case, and given equal space.
Coverage is filed under ten sector categories. Depth over breadth — a handful of companies, followed properly; a category with no report yet is shown as open rather than left out.
AMZN · GOOGL · MSFT · IBM · META
Mega-cap platforms whose capital budgets set the pace of the compute build-out.
Coverage not initiated
Model developers, inference economics, and the cost of serving a token.
MRNA
Platform therapeutics and vaccines — companies whose value is a modality, a pipeline and a patent estate rather than a current revenue line.
MIXUE · 2097 · Green Tea · 6831
Franchised consumer networks built on a vertically integrated supply chain — businesses whose growth is set by store density and same-store sales rather than by a capital cycle.
ORCL
Infrastructure and application software vendors whose growth is now set by the capital they can raise and the power they can connect.
PG · PRGO · WMT
Everyday-consumption businesses — brand owners whose growth is set by unit volume, pricing power and shelf space, and the retailers that own the shelf. Demand is non-discretionary; the risk is margin, not volume.
MSTR
Listed vehicles whose balance sheet is the thesis — treasury companies, digital-credit issuers and the capital structures built on top of them.
HOOD
Retail brokers, payments, market infrastructure, and the settlement layer beneath them.
NVDA · ASML
Accelerators, memory, advanced packaging, and the equipment that makes them.
0700 · SHOP
Commerce infrastructure beneath independent sellers and the messaging-and-payments rails above them — Tencent and Shopify, with Uber, Airbnb, eBay and DoorDash on the watchlist.
Twenty-six sections, twenty-three charts, and a base case of $1,333 against a $1,718 share price. Read why we rate the shares Reduce.