Research desk

The archive. Every report, fully sourced.

Eighteen published reports and two in production, filed under ten sector categories. Most long-form reports run 4,900–24,800 words; each ships with its own data appendix.

Published18

In production02

Total words241,152

Next releaseQ4 2026

Big Tech 5 published

NASDAQ: MSFT Published 24 sections 21 charts

Microsoft Corporation — The Franchise and the Furnace

Microsoft has the best business model in the compute stack and the largest fixed-cost commitment ever made by a software company. Azure crossed $100 billion and reaccelerated to 43%; the commercial backlog reached $678 billion, roughly a third of it traceable to a single customer; capital expenditure hit $115.9 billion; and the useful life of the assets it buys was extended from 15 years to 25 in the same year the depreciation arrives. Against that, long-term debt fell 22.6% to $31.1 billion, debt-to-equity is 0.29, and return on invested capital of 26.2% still clears the cost of capital by sixteen points. We rate the shares Constructive at $512.

Azure & AI capex Copilot economics Depreciation & useful life OpenAI position

Constructive

18 Sep 2026
19,000 words
62 min read
Open →

NYSE: IBM Published 26 sections 30 charts

IBM Corporation — The Displaced Incumbent

IBM is the enterprise vendor whose customers are the ones paying for the AI build-out: Software now carries 61% of segment profit but decelerated from 14% to 5% growth, IBM Z fell 42% in the quarter it lapped the strongest mainframe launch on record, and Consulting has been flat for two years. Against that, free cash flow is guided to $15.7 billion — a 7.0% yield — while net debt has risen $13.3 billion in six quarters to fund $17 billion of acquisitions, and $9.8 billion of pension underfunding sits behind a 116%-funded headline. We rate the shares Neutral at $248.

Hybrid cloud & Red Hat Mainframe cycle Free cash flow quality Pension & balance sheet

Neutral

17 Sep 2026
17,200 words
69 min read
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NASDAQ: GOOGL Published 26 sections 27 charts

Alphabet Inc. — The Mark and the Machine

Alphabet's operating business has never performed better and its reported earnings have almost nothing to do with it. Google Cloud grew 82% at a 35.6% margin with $513.9B of contracted backlog; Search grew 17% through the rollout of the technology meant to destroy it. Against that, $200B of annual capital expenditure, the first negative free cash flow quarter since the 2004 IPO, a buyback cut to zero, and $99B of unrealised equity gains inside a single quarter's income statement. We separate the machine from the mark and rate the shares Constructive at $385.

Google Cloud & TPU Equity mark-ups Search under AI Capital intensity

Constructive

16 Sep 2026
17,900 words
72 min read
Open →

NASDAQ: AMZN Published 29 sections 21 charts

Amazon.com, Inc. — The Landlord of the Frontier

Amazon is now the landlord of the artificial-intelligence frontier and a shareholder in both labs that will decide what it costs. AWS is accelerating to 37% growth on a $496B contracted backlog at a 39% operating margin, retail has turned contributor, and a $190.4B Anthropic position is a third of book equity. Against $220B of 2026 capital spending and negative free cash flow, we separate the operating business from the mark and ask what $262.43 per share already requires to be true.

AWS & AI capex Anthropic mark-ups Ad auction pricing Free cash flow

Neutral

12 Oct 2026
6,900 words
28 min read
Open →

NASDAQ: META Published 30 sections 23 charts

Meta Platforms, Inc. — The Ad Machine and the Compute Bill

Meta grew revenue 28% in the June quarter and its operating income fell 8%. Both numbers are correct, and the gap between them is the investment question: an advertising franchise whose auction is clearing 12% higher per impression, funding $137.5 billion of 2026 capital expenditure, the first year of likely negative free cash flow, a suspended buyback and $83.7 billion of debt — against an agent with five million downloads and no revenue line. We rate the shares Neutral at $775.

AI capex & depreciation Ad auction pricing Free cash flow Youth-safety litigation

Neutral

6 Oct 2026
24,800 words
98 min read
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AI No coverage yet

Biotech 1 published

NASDAQ: MRNA Published 32 sections 20 charts

Moderna, Inc. — The Platform and the Price

On 19 August 2026 intismeran autogene became the first individualised neoantigen therapy to meet a Phase 3 primary endpoint, and the shares rose 177% in two sessions. The science is real. The commercial base beneath it is not: revenue has fallen 89% from its peak, the US reimbursement channel has been closed by injunction since March, and the 2028 breakeven commitment requires growth of roughly 33% a year from a base that has been shrinking for four. We price the pipeline programme by programme and rate the shares Underweight at $110.

mRNA platform Neoantigen therapy Reimbursement policy Cash runway

Underweight

23 Sep 2026
21,700 words
86 min read
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China Consumer 2 published

HKEX: 2097 Published 24 sections 17 charts

MIXUE Group — The Supply Chain and the Store

63,987 stores in 17 countries, and a supply chain that sells ingredients rather than drinks. In the six months to June 2026 revenue grew 2.3% while profit fell 14.7% — the first decline since listing — even as the store network grew 20.7%. Revenue per store fell 17.8%. With RMB 21.6 billion of financial assets and no debt, we rate the shares Neutral with a HK$196 fair value.

Franchise economics Per-store decline Margin compression Valuation vs cash

Neutral

13 Oct 2026
4,945 words
20 min read
Open →

HKEX: 6831 Published 26 sections 20 charts

Green Tea Group — The Estate and the Economy of One Store

The restaurant estate doubled in eighteen months, from 452 stores to 733, and revenue grew 16.8% in the first half of 2026. But same-store sales fell 9.7%, table turnover slipped to 2.9 times a day, and revenue per store fell from roughly RMB 20,000 to 16,800. The shares trade at under five times earnings, a quarter of the peer average, and the nine-year strategic holder sold its entire remaining stake in September. We rate the shares Neutral with a HK$5.60 target.

Unit economics Cannibalisation Moat of the second rank Margin of safety

Neutral

14 Oct 2026
4,997 words
20 min read
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Cloud & SaaS 1 published

NYSE: ORCL Published 31 sections 20 charts

Oracle Corporation — The $664 Billion Promise

Oracle has signed $664 billion of contracts it has not yet delivered, funded by $125.3 billion of notes payable, $20 billion of equity sold below the 52-week high, and a credit market that now prices the name above its 2008 crisis spread. Cloud infrastructure revenue is growing 121%, the backlog is concentrated in a single loss-making counterparty, and the depreciation that will eventually charge the build has not been recognised. We rate the shares Neutral at $160.

AI infrastructure Contract backlog Credit quality Depreciation

Neutral

25 Sep 2026
21,700 words
86 min read
Open →

Consumer Staples 3 published

NYSE: PG Published 30 sections 20 charts

The Procter & Gamble Company — The Volume Problem

P&G reported 3% sales growth in fiscal 2026: two points of currency, one of price, and nothing from unit volume, which was zero for the second consecutive year. Operating margin fell 160 basis points, net margin narrowed in all five segments, and the company spent $1.0 billion more on advertising to produce half the growth. Against a 2.95% dividend yield and a 5.31% ten-year Treasury, we rate the shares Neutral at $150.

Volume vs pricing Private label Dividend & rates Greater China

Neutral

6 Oct 2026
20,900 words
83 min read
Open →

NYSE: PRGO Published 29 sections 19 charts

Perrigo Company plc — The Cleanup Trade

A chief executive gone for cause in June, $1.68 billion of goodwill written off in two years, and $600 million of businesses sold to pay down debt — against a 7.70% dividend that free cash flow has not covered since 2024 and a stock already up 63% from its low. Twenty-nine sections on the succession, the leverage, and the gap between the guidance and the multiple. We rate the shares Neutral at $14.

Succession risk Deleveraging Dividend coverage Quality of earnings

Neutral

12 Oct 2026
6,994 words
28 min read
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NASDAQ: WMT Published 25 sections 11 charts

Walmart Inc. — The Price of Certainty

Revenue of $713.2 billion on a 4.18% operating margin that has not moved in eight years, a $2.9 billion tariff refund inside the latest quarter, advertising up 38% and membership fees up 17% — against a 40-times trailing multiple and a 5.24% ten-year Treasury. Rewritten 12 October. We rate the shares Neutral with a $112 target.

Mix shift Delivery density Quality of earnings Valuation vs rates

Neutral

12 Oct 2026
5,950 words
24 min read
Open →

Digital Assets 1 published

NASDAQ: MSTR Published 29 sections 20 charts

Strategy Inc. — The Reverse Flywheel

846,000 bitcoin, a $63.8 billion cost basis, and a software business that is now a rounding error: the treasury is the company. For four years the machine worked because the shares traded above the value of the coins behind them — that condition no longer holds. Behind the bitcoin sit $21.2 billion of senior claims, a $1.76 billion annual dividend strip, and 88% of the convertible stack puttable inside twelve months. We work through what $153.92 already requires to be true, and why we rate the shares Neutral at $145.

Bitcoin treasury Digital credit mNAV & the flywheel Index eligibility

Neutral

21 Sep 2026
18,400 words
73 min read
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Fintech 1 published

NASDAQ: HOOD Published 28 sections 22 charts

Robinhood Markets, Inc. — The Rent on Restlessness

A record $1.31 billion quarter with a 57% adjusted EBITDA margin — and 23% of the profit came from a one-off accounting gain. Event contracts now contribute $156 million a quarter while roughly twenty US states litigate whether the product is illegal gambling, two federal circuits disagree, and crypto revenue has fallen 60% from its peak. We separate the brokerage from the wager and ask what $119.82 per share already requires to be true.

Prediction markets Crypto cycle Tokenised equity Net interest spread

Neutral

19 Sep 2026
16,200 words
64 min read
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Semi 2 published

NASDAQ: NVDA Published 23 sections 16 charts

NVIDIA Corporation — The Compute Toll

NVIDIA no longer sells a chip. It sells a rack, a network and a software stack, and it now helps its customers borrow the money to buy them. We separate the operating business from the financial engineering around it: $96.2B of quarterly revenue at a 75% margin, $18.6B of first-half profit that did not come from operations, a $500B customer-financing platform, and China at a structural zero. Three futures, and a price that already assumes the middle one.

AI accelerators Export controls Circular financing Valuation

Neutral

12 Oct 2026
4,995 words
20 min read
Open →

NASDAQ: ASML Published 26 sections 23 charts

ASML Holding — The Only Bidder at the Bottleneck

ASML reported the best quarter in its history — €11.66 billion of net sales at a 57.5% gross margin — and raised full-year guidance for the third time. It is the sole supplier of EUV lithography, with demand booked into 2030 and a 50.5% return on equity. It also trades at 42.5 times trailing earnings, 29% above our base-case intrinsic value of $1,333. We rate the shares Reduce.

Sole-source monopoly Capital intensity Cycle risk Margin of safety

Reduce

14 Oct 2026
4,976 words
20 min read
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Platform Economy 2 published

NASDAQ: SHOP Published 28 sections 20 charts

Shopify Inc. — The Storefront and the Agent

Shopify earned $3.58 billion of revenue in the June quarter, up 34%, at an 18% free cash flow margin, with payments penetration at 68% of a $115.6 billion GMV base. The shares then fell 20% into September and recovered most of it in two sessions, when Meta's Muse agent adopted Shop Pay. This edition tests what that settles: whether AI agents standing between the merchant and the buyer are a threat to the storefront or the reason to own it. We work through the agentic disclosures, the take rate, a lending book growing at 50% a year with limited disclosure, and arrive at a genuinely two-sided distribution. We rate the shares Neutral at $145.

Agentic commerce Payments take rate Merchant credit Enterprise migration

Neutral

5 Oct 2026
18,700 words
74 min read
Open →

HKEX: 0700 Published 26 sections 19 charts

Tencent Holdings Limited — The Moat and the Margin of Safety

Revenue rose 11% in the June quarter and gross margin reached 57.8%, yet capital expenditure rose 176% and free cash flow turned negative for the first time in memory. Strip out RMB 58.2 billion of net cash and an RMB 875 billion investment book marked at three-quarters of book value, and the operating business trades at 9.9 times forward non-IFRS earnings. Our base case is HK$565, a 24.7% margin of safety.

Weixin moat AI capex cycle Capital return Sum-of-the-parts

Constructive

13 Oct 2026
4,940 words
20 min read
Open →

In production Thematic · multi-issuer

HBM / Advanced packaging In production Est. 11,000 words

The Narrowest Bottleneck — HBM4, CoWoS, and the Cost of Stacking

Every accelerator is gated by memory bandwidth and packaging capacity. We map SK hynix, Micron, and Samsung's HBM4 ramp against TSMC's CoWoS-L expansion and ask a simple question: who captures the economics of the constraint?

Pending

Target: Q4 2026
Status: drafting
Coverage: 6 issuers

Power & thermal In production Est. 9,500 words

Megawatts Before FLOPS — The Grid Becomes the Constraint

Interconnection queues now run longer than construction schedules. We model turbine backlogs, transformer lead times, and liquid-cooling attach rates to size the real ceiling on AI capacity additions through 2030.

Pending

Target: Q1 2027
Status: research
Coverage: 8 issuers

Standards

Publication standards

Revision policy

Reports are living documents. Each is re-cut after the issuer's quarterly filing, and the revision history is published at the foot of the report with a dated changelog. We do not silently edit a thesis.

Sourcing standard

Figures are attributed to a filing, a press release, a transcript, or a named third-party dataset. Where a number is our estimate, it is labeled as an estimate in the chart note.

Conflict policy

We hold no positions in covered issuers at publication. Any future position will be disclosed in the report footer and on this page, updated within five business days.

Error policy

Material errors are corrected in place with a dated note. We publish a correction even when the error is immaterial to the conclusion, because the alternative is a slow erosion of trust.