Farstar Capital publishes long-form, source-audited equity research on the companies building, powering, and financing the global compute stack. We work from filings, transcripts, and supply-chain data — not from consensus narratives.
NASDAQ: MRNA · Deep Dive · 32 sections
The platform and the price: a validated mRNA oncology platform against revenue that has fallen 89% from its peak, a US reimbursement channel closed by injunction since March, and $6.9 billion of cash carrying a 2028 breakeven promise that requires growth of roughly 33% a year. We rate the shares Underweight at $110.
Open report →NASDAQ: SHOP · 28 sections · $132 target
The storefront and the agent: 34% revenue growth and 18% free cash flow margins against a multiple that now depends entirely on whether AI agents disintermediate the storefront or feed it.
Open report →NASDAQ: HOOD · 28 sections · $128 target
The rent on restlessness: a record quarter built on an accounting gain, a shrinking crypto line, and a new product that roughly twenty US states are litigating as illegal gambling.
Open report →NASDAQ: MSFT · 24 sections · $512 target
The franchise and the furnace: Azure crossed $100 billion and reaccelerated to 43%, the commercial backlog reached $678 billion with roughly a third of it traceable to a single customer, and capital expenditure hit $115.9 billion.
Open report →NYSE: IBM · 24 sections · $248 target
The displaced incumbent: Software carries 61% of segment profit but decelerated to 5%, IBM Z fell 42% in the quarter it lapped its strongest launch, and $9.8 billion of pension underfunding sits behind a 116%-funded headline.
Open report →NASDAQ: GOOGL · 26 sections · $385 target
The mark and the machine: Google Cloud growing 82% with $514 billion of contracted backlog, against $200 billion of annual capital expenditure and the first negative free cash flow quarter since the 2004 IPO.
Open report →NASDAQ: AMZN · 26 sections · $270 target
The cost of capacity: AWS accelerating to 37% growth against $220 billion of capital expenditure, negative free cash flow, and $190 billion of a private AI lab on the balance sheet.
Open report →NASDAQ: NVDA · 24 sections · $258 target
The price of a bottleneck: what the filings show, where the earnings quality has thinned, and what $210.94 already requires to be true.
Open report →The research business has an incentive problem. We have tried to design ours around a single constraint: every claim must survive contact with a primary document.
We do not use "must-own," "rocket ship," or "generational opportunity." If a thesis cannot be stated in the language of a 10-K, it is not a thesis.
Every target is the output of a stated model with stated inputs. Where the model is weak, we say so, and we publish the scenario that breaks it.
Positions, if any, are disclosed at the foot of each report. We do not accept compensation from issuers. Coverage is chosen by us.
Every figure in a report traces to a filing, an earnings release, a transcript, or a supplier disclosure. Secondary commentary is used only to locate a primary source, never to substitute for one.
We rebuild the income statement into cash. Working capital, capitalised costs, non-operating gains, and related-party flows are separated from the operating business and sized.
Market share is reconstructed from unit, revenue, and capacity data across merchant silicon, custom ASIC programs, and foundry/packaging allocation — not from a single analyst estimate.
We publish bear, base, and bull cases with explicit revenue, margin, and multiple assumptions, plus the reverse-DCF reading: what the current price already requires to be true.
Each report is stress-tested against its own strongest counter-argument before publication. The bear case is written by the same analyst as the bull case, and given equal space.
Coverage is filed under seven sector categories. Depth over breadth — a handful of companies, followed properly; a category with no report yet is shown as open rather than left out.
AMZN · GOOGL · MSFT · IBM
Mega-cap platforms whose capital budgets set the pace of the compute build-out.
Coverage not initiated
Model developers, inference economics, and the cost of serving a token.
MRNA
Platform therapeutics and vaccines — companies whose value is a modality, a pipeline and a patent estate rather than a current revenue line.
MSTR
Listed vehicles whose balance sheet is the thesis — treasury companies, digital-credit issuers and the capital structures built on top of them.
HOOD
Retail brokers, payments, market infrastructure, and the settlement layer beneath them.
NVDA
Accelerators, memory, advanced packaging, and the equipment that makes them.
SHOP
Commerce infrastructure and the platforms that sit beneath independent sellers — Shopify, with Uber, Airbnb, eBay and DoorDash on the watchlist.
Thirty-two sections, twenty charts, and a scenario valuation that spans $21 to $214 against a $182.56 share price. Read why we rate the shares Underweight at $110.